Offseason is peak futures season. Each team's market price sits next to our de-vigged fair value — the sportsbook margin removed so it reads as a true probability — and a gap-to-fair read — how far the market price sits from that fair line once vig is stripped. Futures books hold a margin, so this gap is small and negative for every team; the team closest to fair is simply the least-taxed price. Informational only, not a graded play. Division and conference boards are derived from the same fair probabilities. Futures markets are efficient and these can drift all summer.
Team
Market
Mkt implied
Fair prob
Fair price
Gap to fair
"Fair prob" is de-vigged (the sportsbook margin removed so it reads as a true probability); "Mkt implied" is the raw market price converted straight to a probability, so that column sums to more than 100%. "Gap to fair" is the distance from the de-vigged fair probability — always ≤0 after the book's margin, so closest to zero means the least vig. Informational only. Entertainment & information only · 21+ · Please bet responsibly.